tv Mc Laughlin Group CBS August 7, 2011 11:30am-12:00pm EDT
from washington, "the mclaughlin group," the american original. for over two decades, the sharpest minds, best sources, hardest talk. issue one, black thursday. the bad news, the u.s. stock market plunged 512 points on thursday. the selloff was practically worldwide. what is happening in the economy, both in this country and worldwide, pallet? >> several things, john. first is the perception of the united states economy may be headed into a double-dip recession, the largest on earth. secondly, china, japan and europe and not growing and should not be able to pick up
the slack. third and most important, what happened in europe on thursday or the day before is the the third largest economy and spain the touringth largest neither may be able to pay back their debts. on friday there was a move back up in the european central bank is mort will explain, indicating it may step in big- time. >> what about spain? >> spain is one of the problem areas, and italy is a problem area as well. italy is much further down the road in real trouble, john. they got the second largest debt per capita. i think of the major economies in europe and the world. >> eleanor. >> in started in europe and we've just caught some of the european flu. and i think when the job numbers came out friday morning, and they were better than expected as opposed to worse than expected, people felt that the 500-appoint drop didn't necessarily signal the u.s. economy was heading
straight down. but we still got big problems, and the congress averted disaster by raising the debt ceiling but didn't do a lot to recover -- help this economy recover. and it was pretty sad day when you see the president bullied by a minority of a minority on capitol hill, to come up with a deal that really doesn't help the economy as it exists today, but focuses entirely on deficit reduction, a time when we shouldn't be doing deficit reduction and we have a congress that refuses to do any of the stimulus spending that we need. so it looks like we're in for a real stalemate. >> let me pick up some of that. some good news, the u.s. unemployment for last month, july, was down .10%. 9-point 1% in july. also, relatively good news on u.s. jobs. 117,000 jobs created in july.
question, is this good news on friday relatively speaking offset thursday's bad news? welcome, by the way. >> thank you very much. it offsets it to some degree but if you really look at the numbers, i guess one can be excited because the numbers were not any lower. but quite frankly we really need sustained economic growth in in country. most people will tell you we need 120,000 jobs per month added to the economy, and so frankly speaking it's good news and it's not so great news dip >> it shouldn't take the risk of default, the risk of economic catastrophe, to get folks in this town to work together and do their jobs. >> the national nightmare is over. the debt ceiling was raised from $14.3 trillion to $16.7 trillion this week. so u.s. government entitlement check to american citizens will go out on time, social
security, medicare, medicaid. the president along with the congress and the nation were calmed. >> it was a long and contentious debate, and i can't to thank the american people for keeping up the pressure on their elected officials to put politics aside and work. >> hold on, sir! politics has not gone away. the law that just passed that raises the debt ceiling also cuts the national debt by bringing into being what has become identified as a kind of super-committee. that super-committee is tasked with creating a bill to cut the debt over $1.5 trillion over next 10 years. 12 lawmakers, six republicans and six democrats, will serve on the panel. a simple majority, seven out of 12, must vote yes on the super- committee bill so it can reach the full congress for a final vote. but even if the congress fails to pass this, get this, it makes no difference because an
automatic trigger will go into effect. that means if congress votes no, the national debt will still be reduced through automatic cuts worth $1.2 trillion. half a those cuts would come from defense, half from -- [audio not understandable] ngress must hold a final vote on passing the bill. >> mark, you can put that altogether? >> it all goes to the fact that we have a very weak economy. we had to have a huge deficit to try to get the economy out of the major recession. we did have a huge deficit. we had the most stimulative fiscal and man tory policy, yet the economy is still weak. we're still struggling with that. these employment numbers are not nearly as positive as you would think because they do basically reflect people withdrawing from the labor force rather than a lot of increases in new jobs.
just to give you an illustration on that, this is the labor participation rate, for the number of people looking for a job where the same as it was when obama passed the -- original stimulus program, extrapolated to today the unemployment rate would be 12%. it's only because these. and have left the labor force. we have got to find some way to get out of this terrible bind with unemployment continuing to grow and without the ability to do anything about it because of the level of our deficit and debt. >> let me say with mort. the super-committee, and that automatic trigger, which is going to automatically in thely of any vote that takes place, it's going to trigger $1.2 trillion in the reduction of the debt. the national debt has not gone away. >> right. >> heights now at $14.4 trillion. >> right. >> it's a huge debt. >> right. >> this is going to automatically trigger the reduction of that? >> it doesn't have to. congress cannot be foreclosed from doing what it wants to by the year 2013.
this is -- simply can't do it. so it is likely to start that program, but it's completely -- >> john, does the size of the national debt worry you? >> of course, of course! >> should is worry everybody? >> absolutely! it's going to be unsustainable. what we are going to have is a situation where so much money is going to go to service the debt -- >> let me ask you this. it's going to really be a dead weight on the economy! >> let me ask you this. for obama to move in this direction, as he seems to have dunk he's pivoted rather remarkably and some people say idea logically. do you see this as a new presentation of himself? >> no, we need to quit talking about the deficit. deficit is not the primary -- >> did you hear what he just said? >> ty, and i reject that. >> he was talking about the national debt. the deficit is the current -- for this year. >> the deficit would be a problem if government barring were crowding out private investment. it's not. our corporations sitting there with a ton of money.
it's a matter of confidence. there's no confidence in our ability to govern. and members of congress what, was emblematic of their problem, is the faa stalemate which they were ready to go on vacation, and lose $3 million a day. >> you're talking about -- >> shamed into action. >> you're talking about the federal aviation authority. it's not affecting travel. >> right. john, let's get back to the committee. >> let her finish. >> if everybody so worried about the deficit, yao why would you give up all those funds? >> let's go back to the super- committee. >> big deal. >> here's the thing. with super-committee will be deadlocked for it reason. if they try to raise tax, the house will kill it. if they don't put taxes in it, the senate will kill it. the 1.2 trillion doomsday machine comes into defense which means 600 billion out of defense. the pentagon is in panic because this will put republican fiscal hawks into a huge battle with the security
hawks like mccain. >> who isments new head of the pentagon, what is he saying about this? reduction in the budget? possible reduction in the budget? >> he and muscle ebb say we can do 400 billion, 600 billion after that is impossible for our national security [everyone talking at once] >> that's the hammer that allegedly is going to force these members on the super- committee. >> but i think we -- >> there's a chance they could act responsibly. >> michelle. >> the chance of them acting responsibly i would love to see them act responsibly. >> who? >> the members of the super- committee, the members of congress in general, the entire administration. one of the fundamental problems with our economic policy today is that we don't have any grown- ups running washington. we don't see it in the administration, we don't see it in congress. i find it highly unlike hawaii that the super-committee is going to do what they need. >> is obama in the action here or is he trying to get reelected? of course i think for a second term.
do you think that he is now going to say, well, the super- committee has spoken, this is not my doing. is has he removed himself from the economic issue? >> no. >> yes. look, john, i think he has because this automatic cleaver, mitch mcconnell said we will not appoint anybody to the super-committee who will raise taxes. that almost means you're going to get the cleaver will hit but obama may have to back off because of00 billion in added cuts in defense will make him look like weak on defense. >> he can't stop and it, pat. he cannot stop it. >> all of them. >> are they going to vote for? it's part -- it's already built in. >> they've got to come up with the cuts! >> the problem is going to be very circle. you have a unemployment rate close to 20%. you have a housing price that's collapsing. you do not -- that is what will effect the american public.
that's why when obama had his surge in popularity after the osama bin laden episode, it's disappeared now. he has the lowest disapproval ratings because there's no sense of leadership. that's what will drive the election. and -- [everyone talking at once] >> jobs will drive the election. >> the stock market, okay, dropped this morning -- today, the only thing that turned it around was the fact they worked out a solution to the european debt problem. we -- temporary. but we haven't worked out the problems here. and it's not going to. >> you want to 30 all at the foot of barack obama, and it seems to me that if you look at the polls after this, obama is -- does not come out of this unscathed but relatively speak he looks better compared to the tea party republicans -- >> why? [everyone talking at once] >> they're not going to be on the ballot! >> they're going to be on the ballot in november of -- >> michelle! >> explain to me why the world is going through the same problem relatively speaking, almost the same problem that the united states is going
through, the possible exception of latin america? >> because people -- number one, people have lived above their means. number two. >> universally? on the planet? >> universally, people have been living beyond their means. we have governments all over the world that have ridiculous entitlement programs that have been un17able and people have been unable to find a way to get their people to where the jobs are. >> and she's right. and i'll tell what you will happen. government debt, personal dealt. it's the government debt -- >> the erosion of capitalism? >> no, they're saying in europe basically, those debts will be wiped out by default or deevaluation or depreciation of currencies. they'll be wiped out. they're they're in going to be paid. >> looking to america to lead the recovery, and it's not happening. and i think that brings into question our whole question of whether our government is able to face up to these. >> what is the exit question,
pat? >> the exit question is. >> will the planet earth recover? >> will the super-committee deadlock and will the slicer go into effect and the super- committee will deadlock. >> and i think -- if people like the gang every six, who were bipartisan committee in the senate, they agreed to cuts. >> they're not allowed to be on it! >> well, but people liked them and there are still grown-ups on capitol hill, and it's a really hammer on the republican side to avoid those. >> what is the question? >> i think they'll come up with a deal. >> will the super-committee deadlock? >> deadlock. i think it will deadlock. i think the trigger is going to be activated. i have no confidence. >> they can blame it on the trying senator. >> i don't believe the super- committee will deadlock. i think they'll point people to avoid a deadlock because they know how much damage it would bring to the congress. >> there are 12 people in the committee, and the leaders of both chambers select who they are. they get one choice each. >> three each.
>> three each. you mean -- >> mcconnell three, boehner three, pelosi three, reid three. >> the senate and house. >> 12 on there, and six for each party. but the thing is mitch mcconnell -- >> okay. >> nobody who will raise taxes will be appointed. >> and the country wants a balanced approach, and -- >> they didn't get it last time! >> i'm with you there! >> i think it's -- to be determined when we come back, mubarak on trial. issue t
>> i deny all these charges and accusations categorically. >> hosni mubarak lived in the presidential palace in cairo for 30 years. he was egypt's longest serving president, but this week the 83- year-old mubarak was in prison whites on a gurney, speaking from inside a cage. the trial of the former egyptian president began on wednesday on the outskirts every cairo. the charge is murder. mubarak is accused every ordering the killing of more than 800 protestsors. they were among the thousands every protestors who successfully ousted mubarak from power this past february, six months ago. as part of the arab spring. if mubarak is convicted of murder, he could be sentenced to death. the trial is underway, and it has led to street fighting between anti-mubarak protestors and pro-mubarak supporters, including this young egyptian. >> i love mubarak. i love my country.
i'm going to spends money to -- serve my country. >> question, suppose mubarak is found guilty of murder. suppose he is sentenced to death. will this split egypt's new democracy into warring factions, i ask you, mort? >> no, i don't think it will. i think there is certainly a military faction and it is really a key part of that economy and the key part of the political structure. but they're behavioral now protecting themselves. and this is part of the process. this would never have happened whether the acknowledgement of the military. so i think that there's going to be in fact the unification vast majority of egyptians now resent mubarak and sons because they accumulated so much money some this will help the government in a sense, not hurt. >> lets digress to syria, directly connected. as most of my questions. >> most of them are. >> what is the connection between this and syria?
you think when assad's son, what's his first name. >> bashar. >> sees hosni mubarak caged as a prisoner i believe, not for his protection but because he's in a prisoner, he's flying in from sharm el-sheikh. do you think assad is now determined to stop this rebellion despite the fact he's slaying so many people, particularly in hamma? >> he was determined to do whatever he could to stop the rebellion. he represents 14% of the syrian population. they control the economy. he would do whatever he can. he's totally ruthless. this is not unique in with the assad family. but the father was famous for the hamas rulers, he killed 50,000 people. he is now killed thousands and thousands of people. and nobody has been able to stop him to date. >> doesn't need emboldening, but if he's looking at this, he doesn't want to end up this way. i think he thinks the
alternative is to put counsel -- >> john henry kissinger once said to be an enemy of the united states is often dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal. what we're seeing in aruba be mubarak and people in the middle east is seeing this is what happens to people who have been friends to america for 30 years and then america abandons them. they wind up in a cage, and i think that -- assad is looking and said, look, they may take me out on a stretcher, but they're not putting me -- [everyone talking at once] >> hold on! >> what happened to mubarak when his state was brought upon by himself. >> that's the point i was going to bring. whether the year mubarak was friends with the united states or not, the bottom line is egyptian looked at what was happening in tunisia and had the same problems, hundreds of thousands of young people who cannot get jobs, can't take care of their families, can't feed or clothe their families and they don't want this for their country any longer. >> let me finish. you are -- when you head of the
independent women's forums, you had some muslim women, islamic women, come here, correct? >> we had islamic women from iraq come over -- from all over the middle east, come to the united states. we brought 200 iraqi woman. >> did they talk about conditions over there? did they give you any insight you hadn't had before? >> absolutely. we took a group -- i was privileged to take a group of iraqi women down to the congress at one point in time and at that time darrell issa, member of congress from california, said to the group of iraqi women, you know, we're getting readies to go into elections, many americans are completely against the iraqi war. what would you have us tell our constituents? i've never forgotten a woman who dressed in all black from head to toe said, we would ask the american public why it took you so long to come back and help us. these women why very, very interested in finding about the principles and practice of democracy. there's people are who wanted women's rights, particularly in areas of the country where women did >> women had more rig
saddam hussein. >> they had rights in spite of saddam hussein. [everyone talking at once] >> any wisdom on women's rights? >> well, yes! i've learned from great experience, not from bitter experience. there's no -- both societies were discriminating against women and these were authoritarian societies. and there's been a revolution about that and it's certainly true in egypt. >> you wait until the muslim brotherhood is run in egypt to see how well women are treated, and the military will run the show, not demonstrateddors in the square. >> we'll be right back with predictions!
race and after the iowa central poll will be newt gingrich. >> number two? >> i think number two will be huntsman but he will stick around. i don't think he'll do very well in new hampshire. >> expand on pat's prediction. i've got beginning riff on my list. i'm going to add rick santorum. if he doesn't show in iowa, which is -- favorable to social conservatives, i think he will see the handwriting on the wall. >> i'm going with gingrich and pawlenty. i think both will be at home and abroad. >> i predict the alleged water found on mars is an optical illusion. bye-bye! [ male announcer ] are you watching cable?
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